UFC 302 Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier Predictions

Going down Saturday, June 1st in the Prudential Center, in Newark New Jersey, Dustin Poirier is fighting for UFC gold. His potential last attempt at a championship belt, and Islam Makhachev, the top pound for pound fighter riding a 13 fight win streak, is the only one standing in his way.

Check out our video below to see our UFC 302 Predictions

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For a slightly different analysis, you can read below a little more in depth “why” I think these fights will go according.

Main Card Opener Welterweight

“Rudeboy” Randy Brown (-185 Favorite)

18-5-0

• Height 6′ 3″,
• Weight 171 lbs
• Age (33)
• Reach: 78″

Last 5:

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos “Capoeira” (+155 Underdog)

24-7-1

• Height 5′ 11″,
• Weight 171 lbs
• Age (37)
• Reach: 73″

Last 5:

Opening the main card of UFC 302, Randy Brown and Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos will try to set the tone for the night. Randy Brown is coming off of a 1st round KO over Muslim Salikhov earlier this year, which you can expect a fighter to want to ride that performance. Dos Santos comes in off a draw in late 2023, but it was against Rinat Fakhretdinov who is tearing through the Welterweight division, and Dos Santos stayed on pace. This has the makings of an impressive fight that could stay on the feet or go to the ground. Randy Brown wins 80% of the time as a favorite, and when the fights go to decision, like these fighters have been doing, Randy Brown wins 85.7% of the time. I’ll “trust the data” here and ride the odds with Randy Brown by Decision

Welterweight (Not covered in Video Above)

“The Hybrid” Niko Price (+215 Underdog)

15-7-0

• Height 6′ 0″,
• Weight 171 lbs
• Age (34)
• Reach: 76″

Last 5:

Alex “The Great White” Morono (-265 Favorite)

24-9-0

Last 5:

Niko Price was originally supposed to face Jeremiah Wells in this June 1 matchup, but Wells was injured in sparring. In comes Alex Morono, to avenge his 2017 loss. This fight was overturned after the fact to a no contest due to Niko Price testing positive for marijuana. With 6 weeks to prepare, Morono will look to capitalize on the recent success of Lawler and Rowe, utilizing a strong punch to soften Price up. The difference in where these 2 fighters were and are is apparent, Price seems to be fading as of late, competing once a year in 2022 and 2023, does his chin still hold up? Niko Price is 4-4 against fighters with shorter reach, and 5-5 against orthodox strikers. While Price has KOd Morono in the past, since then, Morono has had the better career, winning 77.8% as a favorite and 60% as an underdog. Compared to Price, 60% as a favorite, and 44.4% as an underdog. All of this leads me to believe that Alex Morono will avenge that loss by decision.

Middleweight

Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (-320 Favorite)

25-11-0

• Height 6′ 3″,
• Weight 185 lbs
• Age (31)
• Reach: 81″

Last 5:

Michal “Hussar” Oleksiejczuk (+250 Underdog)

19-7-0

• Height 6′ 0″,
• Weight 185 lbs
• Age (29)
• Reach: 74″

Last 5:

Kevin Holland is coming off a very frustrating defeat for him, but luckily, he’s in store for a more “normal” fight against Michal Oleksiejczuk. Holland is longer, and bounces between Middleweight and Welterweight for a fight. Oleksiejczuk in his 13 UFC fights, boasts an average fight time of 5:24. Between the two, I expect a heavy striking match where Kevin Holland will be looking to establish his strong right hand early and often. Kevin Holland wins 75% of the time as a favorite, and is 4-2 against southpaws with shorter reach. Michal Oleksiejczuk is a great striker who often has found ways of getting in on bigger fighters, but in this case, with him winning as an underdog at only 25%, I’m leaning Kevin Holland by 2nd round TKO.

Co-Main Middleweight

Sean “Tarzan” Strickland (-270 Favortie)

28-6-0

• Height 6′ 1″,
• Weight 185 lbs
• Age (33)
• Reach: 76″

Last 5:

Paulo “The Eraser” Costa (+220 Underdog)

14-3-0

• Height 6′ 1″,
• Weight 185 lbs
• Age (33)
• Reach: 72″

Last 5:

This is Sean Stricklands first fight after losing a questionable decision to Dricus Du Plessis in his defense of the Middleweight belt. Strickland is coming in seemingly like normal, almost as if a weight was lifted off of his chest by losing the belt. Paulo Costa is coming off of a loss as well, but to Robert Whittaker, another top ranked middleweight fighter. With the two seemingly content for a blood bath, how much of Costa’s kicks will we see? Sean Strickland is a very durable fighter that in recent years we’ve watched come into his own, with a very powerful defense, and a walk you down style, it’s hard to fight someone like Strickland off of your back foot. If Costa cannot combat that, I thinks it’s going to be a fairly easy decision victory for Sean Strickland.

Main Event Lightweight Title

Islam Makhachev (-600 Favorite)

25-1-0

• Height 5′ 10″,
• Weight 155 lbs
• Age (32)
• Reach: 70.5″

Last 5:

Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier (+400 Underdog)

30-8-0

• Height 5′ 9″,
• Weight 155 lbs
• Age (35)
• Reach: 72″

Last 5:

Islam Makhachev is the top pound for pound fighter in the UFC. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2015, and is riding high on a 13 fight win streak, most of which were wins in dominant fashion. Dustin Poirier is fighting for potentially his final opportunity to secure UFC gold, but also potentially the final fight of his career. Poirier is undefeated in June fights, yes thats a reach whatever. Title fights are 5 round encounters, but this one is almost a guarantee to not go the distance. Makhachev will almost certainly be looking to take this fight to the ground to finish Poirier by submission. Makhacehv is 14-1 as the favorite while Poirier is 6-2 as the underdog. I’ll let my bias bleed through here and lock in the heavy upset. Dustin Poirier by 3rd round KO.